Unfortunately luck does not come into when it comes to energy prices in the current macro-environment.
External forces affect the price you pay for all your energy and whether the market goes up or down from here we don’t know. A price secured now will crystalise your position and should there be marginal further relief you will see no benefit of this, but should the market start to rise from the lows we have seen the price that can be achieved today will increase. As the market is converged currently unlike 12 months ago there is no indication that waiting will provide any better price and politically there is potential for outfall from further action against the west in the energy markets.
If the market is lower next summer then we can capitalise on that and forward procure for another 12 months, and if the market is higher signing until 2026 gives you another 12 months to monitor the market.
This strategy both reduces your risk and exposure to the market but also provides budget certainty moving forward.
Market Update:
The European and UK energy market has been working effectively throughout 2023, with the forecasts suggesting the current pricing will remain at this level for the next 3 years. In the gas market we are seeing a differential wholesale cost for 1 year and 3-year terms below 3%.
In the wake of the Irael/Palestinian war the markets have seen a rise, mainly due to the location of the Suez Canal in relation to the attacks and the global disruption this may cause on LNG imports. Furthermore, Friday saw the Finnish Government announce that there is a gas leak in a major pipeline. The Finish government believe this damage to be a deliberate act also stating that the damage could take months to be repaired.
The below link is a recently posted article around the expectations of the energy market going into winter 2023.
The concern is that the market and supply is in a fragile state and any impact will send prices up quickly. The key areas we are monitoring are:
· Supply from USA and Norway, any distribution in these supply’s by logistics or sabotage from Russia
· European nuclear reliance on uranium from Russia, we have seen Russia stop exports of Gas at their own economic cost and if they continued this with uranium it would cause a significant shortfall in European electric generation which would likely be picked up by burning gas.
· Generation, wind and solar generation have been high across the UK and Europe year to date and it is impossible to forecast what this will look like in the latter half of the year.
· Temperatures for winter 23/24, we enjoyed an above historic temperature this previous winter which relieved demand and cost.
Our customers will also receive the below when they sign up through us:
· Bill Validation - Send us your new bill and we will make sure you're being charged the agreed rates.
· Structuring of co-terminus (common contract end dates) agreements if required (multi sites)
· Proactive contract management - Making sure you never fall on to out of contract rates in the future.
· Moves, adds and changes - We will manage any new meters install, changes of address or additional buildings.
To see what we can do to help you control your costs, simply email your latest bill to dean@yourtimebusinesssolutions.com and we will do the rest from there.